Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 2.085361 2.193376 2.308948 2.442733 2.594559 2.763042 2.966396
2025-07-20 2.011318 2.154134 2.313386 2.506724 2.738918 3.014260 3.374662
2025-07-27 1.932246 2.093371 2.277907 2.509253 2.798456 3.158880 3.662542
2025-08-03 1.872422 2.046706 2.250550 2.512831 2.851911 3.293347 3.949089
2025-08-10 1.790065 1.966716 2.175859 2.449129 2.809706 3.292191 4.038440
2025-08-17 1.741531 1.923937 2.142760 2.433558 2.826169 3.368452 4.249055
2025-08-24 1.700147 1.887209 2.114221 2.420475 2.842658 3.443345 4.466436
2025-08-31 1.664385 1.855392 2.089603 2.409926 2.860120 3.519034 4.695987
2025-09-07 1.643418 1.840718 2.085467 2.425454 2.914112 3.653884 5.056641
2025-09-14 1.588794 1.781590 2.021430 2.355881 2.839284 3.577433 4.999412
2025-09-21 1.562995 1.758155 2.002819 2.347610 2.853755 3.645593 5.242440
2025-09-28 1.526832 1.720341 1.963939 2.309181 2.820291 3.630713 5.308506
2025-10-05 1.517962 1.718199 1.973153 2.340256 2.896907 3.814652 5.873092
2025-10-12 1.519928 1.729825 2.000753 2.398460 3.019863 4.097836 6.808856
2025-10-19 1.501592 1.714117 1.990530 2.400740 3.052868 4.219210 7.381294
2025-10-26 1.484755 1.699775 1.981477 2.403974 3.087167 4.347404 8.055517
2025-11-02 1.447705 1.657684 1.932919 2.346014 3.014794 4.251126 7.910795
2025-11-09 1.427286 1.637302 1.913872 2.331816 3.016037 4.307478 8.363594
2025-11-16 1.408627 1.618802 1.896853 2.319878 3.020185 4.370273 8.890864
2025-11-23 1.391605 1.602084 1.881805 2.310248 3.027549 4.440862 9.517547
2025-11-30 1.383197 1.596676 1.882341 2.324406 3.077499 4.613539 10.848624
2025-12-07 1.350187 1.557354 1.834018 2.260868 2.984324 4.444790 10.152255
2025-12-14 1.336139 1.543550 1.821649 2.253298 2.992429 4.515767 10.950667